Business Briefing: The Power of Predictability

Keywords: Predictability, Trust, Organizational Change, Management Practices, Employee Motivation
Source: Harvard Business Review
Link: Read the full article on HBR.org
Authors: Howard H. Stevenson and Mihnea C. Moldoveanu
Published: July 1995
Est. Read Time (Original): ~15 minutes

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The Core Idea

Stevenson and Moldoveanu argue that the fundamental human need for predictability is the invisible glue that holds organizations together. From ancient hunters to modern knowledge workers, people join organizations to reduce uncertainty and create a stable environment where they can focus on creating value. The authors posit that many modern management "tonics", like reengineering, rightsizing, and matrix management, are systematically destroying this predictability. This erosion of trust forces employees into a state of survival, where they spend their energy "reading tea leaves" to figure out the rules of the game, rather than on productive work.

Why It Matters for Business Today

This article provides a powerful human-centric lens through which to view the often-unseen consequences of constant organizational change.

• The Paradox of Modern Management: The article highlights a critical paradox: the very tools leaders use to make their organizations more competitive are often the ones destroying the internal trust and stability required for high performance. Constant change creates an environment where employees' commitments become minimal and their focus shifts from value creation to self-preservation.

• Predictability Doesn't Mean Guarantees: The authors make a crucial distinction: employees don't need a guarantee of success, but they do need to understand the rules of the game. People will accept risk and uncertainty if they can predict the consequences of their actions and believe the system is fair. When punishment and reward seem random, they become paralyzed.

• Leadership as the Guardian of Predictability: The leader's primary role in a time of change is to be an honest broker of reality. This involves making dire predictions when necessary (the Churchill example), establishing a clear and stable set of rules by which people can succeed, and then playing by those rules. This restores the trust that allows employees to refocus their finite energy on creating value.

The Strategic Question for Leaders

The authors argue that many modern management tools destroy the predictability that builds trust.

How does your organization balance its drive for efficiency and constant change with the fundamental human need for a stable, predictable environment where employees understand the rules of the game and the consequences of their actions?

Share your perspective in the comments below.

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